Six weeks before the elections in Germany, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, Friedrich Merz, holds a significant lead over Chancellor Olaf Scholz, but a new threat is emerging on the horizon — the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
According to Bloomberg, Merz's advisors are concerned that with Trump’s inauguration on January 20, there could be shifts in international politics that might enhance Scholz's role as a defender of democratic values. One party official notes that even with a polling advantage, Trump’s return could drastically alter the electoral calculations.
Scholz is already actively leveraging the potential return of Trump as part of his campaign, presenting himself as a reliable leader protecting European and Western values. At the Social Democratic Party congress, he emphasized that the principle of inviolable borders is fundamental to democracy, and no country should fear a larger neighbor.
Both Merz and Scholz view Trump’s return as a game changer. Sources within Scholz's campaign claim that Trump has many "wild cards" that could unexpectedly shift the election dynamics.
The publication reminds readers that Germans, who tend to favor strong leadership in challenging times, witnessed Gerhard Schröder win a second term in 2002 despite weak support, by opposing U.S. plans for Iraq.
Additionally, in 2016 Angela Merkel cited Trump's victory as a reason for her decision to run for a fourth term. In 2021, Scholz himself won the elections by positioning himself as a reliable leader in contrast to two unpopular candidates.
According to the latest Insa polls, Merz's bloc has seen its rating drop by one percentage point to 30%, while the SPD has decreased by half a percentage point to 16%. At the same time, the far-right AfD has risen by half a point to 22%, marking the highest figure for the party in the past year.
Source: bloomberg.