The fall of Bashar Assad could deprive the Kremlin of critical assets in the Middle East, particularly the naval base in Tartus, which has been utilized for projecting power in the Mediterranean and controlling NATO's southern flank.
According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, the loss of these bases would significantly complicate Russia's logistics, including resupply and troop rotation. Furthermore, Russian operations in Libya and countries south of the Sahara would be greatly affected. Moscow is likely to seek alternatives in Sudan and Libya; however, the lack of formal agreements and insufficient infrastructure in these nations makes such a substitution challenging.
Another issue will be the erosion of Russia's authority on the global stage. Assad's downfall would deal a serious blow to the Kremlin's image as a reliable ally, which would diminish its influence over African autocrats whom Russia actively supports. This also jeopardizes Moscow's ambition to position itself as a global superpower.
Analysts believe that Putin is experiencing one of the largest geopolitical defeats of his tenure. Experts note that the war in Ukraine has severely weakened Russia's position in Syria, and now the Kremlin faces the question of whether it can secure new agreements with a potential new Syrian government to maintain bases in Tartus and Khmeimim.
At the same time, the withdrawal of a significant portion of Russian military aircraft from Syria to participate in the war against Ukraine, along with Turkey's closure of the straits to Russian ships at the beginning of the invasion, further limits Moscow's capabilities in the region.
Source: understandingwar .