The German government has an "internal analysis" suggesting that the Kremlin may be prepared to conclude military operations in Ukraine by 2025.
This information comes from the German publication BILD. They add that this analysis concludes that "the Kremlin could end the war this year and is already sending signals to both the Russian public and the international community."
One reason for this prediction is the rapid deterioration of the economic situation in Russia.
"Interest rates and food prices are rising dramatically. In just the last five months, the ruble has lost more than 20% against the euro. The three-shift work of the defense industry can no longer conceal the crisis in other sectors. While economic growth was just under 4% in 2024, the expected growth for 2025 is no more than 1%," the BILD article states.
The second factor that may push the Kremlin to end the war is Russia's preparation for parliamentary elections in 2026. According to Russian media, the administration of the President of Russia is actively working on creating a "victory narrative" that is to be presented to the Russian society as an achievement within the framework of the so-called "special military operation." This would allow Putin to position himself favorably before voters even if the war does not yield strategic successes.
Additionally, the elected U.S. President Donald Trump has already expressed his intention to negotiate with Moscow and Kyiv immediately after his inauguration. This factor could serve as an extra incentive for Putin to end the conflict. Nevertheless, the German government remains skeptical about a swift conclusion to the war. The German Foreign Office has noted that Putin is not interested in genuine peace negotiations and insists on his maximalist demands, such as the recognition of the annexation of parts of Ukrainian territory.
Political commentator Philipp Pyatov pointed out that signals from the Kremlin could also mean something entirely different, the opposite, or nothing at all.
Source: BILD.