Efforts to end the war in early 2025 under the leadership of U.S. President Donald Trump may put Ukraine in a position that is highly advantageous for Russia, particularly due to the lack of adequate security guarantees from the West.
The American magazine Foreign Affairs has released an analysis of options for Ukraine in the context of upcoming negotiations with Russia, focusing on potential security guarantees for Kyiv.
During the negotiations, Russia may propose a freeze on military actions along the front line and various options for Ukraine’s post-war status, including neutrality or complete disarmament. Such conditions contradict the promises made to Ukraine by NATO in July at the alliance summit and could trigger a political and military crisis in Ukraine.
One of the most critical issues is ensuring a reliable defense for Ukraine after the war. Experts emphasize that without strong security guarantees from Europe and NATO, Ukraine will not be able to secure its future.
Among the possible scenarios for Ukraine, there are several options for reaching a peace agreement. Firstly, it is crucial that the negotiations involve Ukraine and key European states without American or Russian dictation. Secondly, any agreement must include robust enforcement mechanisms; otherwise, Russia may view a ceasefire as a temporary pause to regroup before launching an offensive.
To avoid such a scenario, Europe must overcome its internal divisions and determine how to reliably ensure Ukraine's security. This could involve increased financial support, lifting restrictions on the use of force, or even deploying military forces on Ukrainian territory to oversee the implementation of the agreement.
Source: foreignaffairs.