Germany may see a change in government. Will the new chancellor provide Ukraine with TAURUS missiles?

Collapse of the Traffic Light Coalition

Bundestag elections take place every four years. It is here, in the lower house of the German parliament, that the ruling coalition is formed and the name of the chancellor—the head of the federal government—is determined.

The next elections are scheduled for September 2025. However, on November 6, a major scandal intervened in Germany's political calendar, opening the door for early parliamentary elections. Disputes over the state budget deficit and expenditures for 2025 led to the collapse of the governing coalition. The issue of Ukraine played a significant role in this.

Finance Minister Christian Lindner attempted to convince Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Germany could not afford to allocate additional funds to support Ukraine in 2025 due to a billion-euro budget deficit. Instead of money, Lindner suggested that Scholz provide Ukraine with long-range TAURUS missiles. In response, the chancellor decided to dismiss the finance minister.

Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), announced that his party members were leaving all government positions. Volker Wissing, the transport minister in Scholz's government from the FDP, was the only one who refused to comply with his party leader. He left the party but remained in government. Instead of the transport minister position, Olaf Scholz offered Wissing the role of Minister of Justice. Wissing accepted this offer.

The FDP exited the ruling coalition, leaving only two parties: the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Alliance 90/The Greens. Thus, the so-called traffic light coalition (named after the traditional colors of the three parties that comprised it) ceased to exist, as there is no longer a majority in parliament.

Christian Lindner, who is on friendly terms with the leader of the opposition party CDU/CSU Friedrich Merz, may have planned to exit the governing coalition long before he was dismissed as finance minister. In early November, a programmatic document written by Lindner leaked to the German press, outlining his plan for fundamental economic restructuring in the country. He proposed cutting certain social benefits and insisted that the government adhere to the European Union's climate standards rather than more ambitious national standards. Lindner deliberately put forward a series of provocative demands that his coalition partners would never agree to accept.

The opposition, calling for early parliamentary elections, labeled this plan a "divorce document" with the government coalition. The actual collapse of the coalition was the only goal of the SPD leader, assured Rebecca Harms, a German politician, vice-president of the European Centre for Press and Media Freedom, and member of the Alliance 90/The Greens, in a conversation with hromadske:

"The SPD leaders believe they can improve their positions in the next elections. That's why they aimed to exit the coalition. However, now many perceive the SPD as unreliable partners who have lost their political instincts. I think they have no chance in early elections."

Olaf Scholz will continue to govern the country at least until December 16, when a vote of confidence in the incumbent chancellor will take place in the Bundestag. According to Rebecca Harms, Scholz has no chance of retaining his position.

A vote of no confidence in the current chancellor is inevitable. Early elections cannot be avoided. This is already a settled issue. The election campaign in the country has effectively begun.Rebecca Harms

The Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has already stated that he will immediately dissolve parliament if the Bundestag expresses a lack of confidence in the chancellor. In that case, early parliamentary elections will take place on February 23, 2025.

It should be noted that Germany is a classic parliamentary republic. The head of state is effectively the chancellor, elected by a coalition of parties in the Bundestag. The Federal President performs representative functions: accrediting diplomatic representatives and representing Germany on the international stage. Additionally, he has the right to pardon prisoners and dissolve parliament in case of a collapse of the governing coalition.

Will pro-Russian forces enter the new government?

The opposition stands to gain the most from early elections. The Social Democratic Party, led by Olaf Scholz, which won the 2021 Bundestag elections, is rapidly losing its ratings due to the ruling coalition's inability to cope with the stagnation of the German economy.

According to the latest sociological surveys, 16% of voters are ready to cast their votes for the social democrats. The party of the current chancellor is being surpassed by two opposition political forces—the center-right CDU/CSU led by Friedrich Merz and the far-right Alternative for Germany led by Alice Weidel. 33% of voters are ready to vote for CDU/CSU, while 18% support the pro-Russian Alternative for Germany.

The Alternative for Germany consistently opposes Germany providing military assistance to Ukraine, accusing Olaf Scholz's government of "fomenting war." The party's lawyers even filed a lawsuit against the German federal government demanding to halt arms supplies to Ukraine.

Moreover, last summer, the German publication Spiegel published a sensational journalistic investigation indicating that representatives of Russia contacted far-right parties in Germany, including the leadership of the Alternative for Germany. Analyzing hacked emails from Russian propagandist Vladimir Sergienko with representatives of the Alternative for Germany, Spiegel journalists found that deputies from this political force repeatedly received texts of their speeches from Moscow in exchange for financial support from Russia.

The Bundestag may also include the Alliance 90/The Greens with a rating of 12% and the pro-Russian far-left Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht with a rating of 6%. The German press refers to Sahra Wagenknecht as "Putin's friend" for her consistent anti-Ukrainian stance. Wagenknecht opposes Ukraine's NATO membership, calls for an end to arms supplies to Kyiv, and urges negotiations with Moscow for an immediate ceasefire along the current front line, while maintaining Russian control over all occupied territories.

Only 3% of voters are ready to support the Free Democratic Party, which initiated the collapse of the coalition. To enter parliament, it is necessary to overcome the 5% barrier.

Olaf Scholz is such an unpopular politician in Germany that the leadership of the SPD is discussing the need to change the party leader. According to the newspaper Spiegel, the social democrats may go into the elections with a new party head, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. However, such a maneuver is unlikely to significantly improve the SPD's ratings, said Rebecca Harms in a conversation with hromadske.

To form a ruling coalition, parties must have a simple majority of votes. Currently, the Bundestag has 738 seats. This is the largest parliament in Europe by the number of deputies.

According to Rebecca Harms, there is a probability that after the elections, a new coalition will be formed by the CDU/CSU of Friedrich Merz and the SPD of Olaf Scholz, to which the Alliance 90/The Greens of Robert Habeck and the current Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock may join. The so-called grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD governed Germany relatively recently, from 2013 to 2021. However, three years ago, the heavyweight of German politics failed to reach an agreement to form a joint government.

Coalition of Friends of Ukraine

The clear favorite of the elections, the CDU/CSU party, is ready to nominate its leader Friedrich Merz for the chancellorship in the event of victory. The CDU/CSU is a fierce opponent of forming a coalition with the far-right Alternative for Germany and the left-radical Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht, who oppose assistance to Ukraine.

Friedrich Merz even called these parties "apologists for Vladimir Putin in Germany." Such a position from the Christian Democrats makes the participation of pro-Russian parties in the future coalition practically impossible in the event of CDU/CSU's victory in the elections.

Other political forces vying for participation in the new coalition support the necessity of providing assistance to Ukraine. The head of the Alliance 90/The Greens, Robert Habeck, advocates for supplying long-range TAURUS missiles to Kyiv. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU/CSU and likely the next chancellor of Germany, has also repeatedly urged Olaf Scholz to unblock the transfer of TAURUS to Ukraine.

Furthermore, on November 10, Merz stated that he is ready to issue an ultimatum to Russia if he becomes chancellor. He promised that Germany would lift all restrictions on the range of arms already supplied to Ukraine if Russia does not cease shelling civilians within 24 hours. If this is insufficient, Berlin will transfer TAURUS missiles to Kyiv within a week, assured Merz.

Ukraine is experiencing its third winter of war, the situation is unstable, and without American assistance, it could become even worse. Next year, we will face the question: do we really want to abandon Ukraine? We must always remember that it is Russia that is the source of escalation, not Ukraine.Friedrich Merz

Merz's tough rhetoric in support of Ukraine contrasts