Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that he can end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
A writer from the Financial Times notes that the comments made by elected Vice President J.D. Vance regarding a possible division of Ukraine and postponement of NATO membership resonate with Russian scenarios but contradict the peace plan of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
For Vladimir Putin, these proposals appear advantageous. He aims not only to solidify control over the occupied territories of Ukraine but also to showcase a victory both internationally and to his own people. At the same time, the stringent sanctions impacting the Russian economy provide an additional incentive for negotiations.
Trump might leverage these circumstances to compel the Kremlin to make concessions. The expert outlines three potential scenarios for concessions. One option is to propose an agreement model similar to the status of West Germany after World War II. This would entail a temporary recognition of the division of Ukrainian territories while clearly maintaining the right to future reunification.
The second scenario, as noted by the expert, involves using economic pressure to strengthen negotiation positions. Russia is interested in easing sanctions that, while not devastating its economy, have significantly restricted the country's development. The third option is to improve relations with the West. For Putin, re-engaging Russia in dialogue with the U.S. signifies not only the lifting of isolation but also an opportunity to bolster his legitimacy as a leader capable of navigating major geopolitical games.
However, the expert suggests that the Ukrainian side will most likely categorically reject any solutions that involve relinquishing territorial integrity. Furthermore, such a strategy risks undermining U.S. trust among its NATO allies. Whether Trump can find a solution that satisfies all parties remains an open question.
Source: ft.com.