Trump or Harris: Who will be the next US President and how can Americans of Ukrainian descent impact the election outcome?

Recent Ratings and a Confusing Electoral System

On Tuesday, November 5, Americans will head to the polls to elect the country's president for the next four years.

The gap between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris fluctuates within the margin of error. Thus, for the first time in many years, there is no clear favorite in the U.S. presidential election.

According to the latest poll by the reputable polling agency YouGov, conducted from October 26 to 29, 49% of voters are ready to cast their ballots for Kamala Harris, while 47% support Donald Trump.

Surveys conducted by the SSRS polling agency from October 23 to 28 show a lead for the Democratic leader in key “swing states”. In Michigan, Harris is gaining 48% of the votes, while Trump has 43%. In Wisconsin, Harris holds a significant advantage: 52% of Americans are willing to vote for her, compared to 45% for Trump. In Pennsylvania, voter sympathies are evenly split: 48% of respondents plan to vote for Trump, and the same number for Harris.

The outcomes of the elections in these three states largely determine the fate of the entire presidential campaign. The reason is that the United States has a multi-step voting process: first, voters cast their ballots, and then the Electoral College, representing each state, votes. The final result of the presidential election depends on the electors' votes.

Each of the 50 states delegates its electors proportionally to the state’s population. For instance, the largest state, California, with 39 million residents, is represented by 54 electors. Meanwhile, Wyoming, with about 584,000 inhabitants, has only 3 electors. In total, the Electoral College comprises 538 electors. It’s worth noting that the U.S. census is conducted every ten years.

Electors are required to vote in accordance with the majority vote in their state. Thus, the winner in each individual state receives all the electoral votes from that state. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes.

There are states that traditionally vote for Republicans or Democrats. Therefore, presidential candidates usually pay more attention to so-called swing states, where voter preferences change depending on the election cycle.

In this election, such states include Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. In total, these seven states have 93 electoral votes. States that traditionally vote against Republicans and where Kamala Harris leads significantly in polls could provide the Democrat with 226 electoral votes. Conversely, traditionally Republican states where Donald Trump has an advantage could secure him 219 electoral votes.

The fiercest battle is taking place in Pennsylvania, which will provide the winner with 19 electoral votes. The loser in this state risks losing the presidential election—if everything goes without surprises in other states.

The last time a Republican won elections in several traditionally Democratic states was in 2016. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton lost the election despite receiving more than 65 million votes. In contrast, the victorious Trump garnered nearly 63 million votes. However, the Republican's win in states with a large number of electors determined the election's outcome in his favor.

Over 50 Million Americans Have Already Voted

Under U.S. law, citizens can vote early in elections: as of October 30, more than 54 million voters, including current President Joe Biden, had exercised this right.

Early voting can occur by mail or at designated polling places. Donald Trump has already accused authorities of fraud in Pennsylvania—a key “swing state” where over one and a half million voters have already cast their ballots. Trump called on his followers to catch fraudsters, although he provided no evidence.

The greatest danger of the election is the unwillingness of Donald Trump's supporters to verify the truthfulness of his statements, which often do not align with reality, said Dmitry Korobski, an American of Ukrainian descent and representative of the public organization "New Ukraine" in an interview with hromadske. This organization, formed by the Ukrainian diaspora in 2014, collects and sends humanitarian aid to Ukraine and assists Ukrainian refugees in finding housing in America.

“In reputable publications like the Washington Post, there are analytical departments that verify the statements of political figures. According to their data, when Donald Trump was president, he made over 20,000 false statements. However, this does not overly concern Republican supporters. In my opinion, they live in an alternative reality created for them by media outlets like Fox News, which unconditionally support the Republican Party,” Korobski stated.

In 2020, Donald Trump lost the presidential election but has yet to concede his defeat. His opponents are concerned about this and fear he may not accept the results of this election if he loses. In particular, President Joe Biden expressed concern that violence could flare up on the streets, as it did four years ago when Trump's supporters stormed the Capitol.

Fear of Trump

Kamala Harris has pledged to recognize any election results, and the transfer of power will occur peacefully, in “the best traditions of American democracy.” However, the presidential candidate did not miss the opportunity to humiliate Donald Trump with sarcastic remarks.

“It’s time to turn the page and leave behind the drama, conflicts, and fear that Donald Trump has sown for many years. It’s time for a new generation of politicians. Trump is obsessed with revenge and a thirst for unchecked power. He has spent all these years dividing American society and pitting Americans against each other. If Donald Trump wins, he will enter the Oval Office with a list of enemies. If I win, I will sit in the presidential chair with a list of tasks to accomplish for our country,” Harris said during a rally in Washington on October 30.

However, Trump denies that he will settle scores with those who criticize him. He claims that those he fired for poor performance are trying to harm him. For instance, former member of his team, General John Kelly, calls Trump a fascist and asserts that he is infatuated with Adolf Hitler. In response, Trump accuses his opponents of fascism.

But John Kelly is far from the only influential Republican urging people not to vote for Donald Trump and supporting Kamala Harris. Other Republicans include Mike Pence, former vice president in Trump’s administration from 2016 to 2020, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, former governor of California from 2003 to 2011. The list of Republican politicians who will vote for Harris is quite lengthy, with over 200 names already.

The Richest Man in the World Supports Trump, Stars Are on Harris's Side

Trump is supported by the richest man on the planet—billionaire Elon Musk. He appears at Trump’s rallies, donates tens of millions of dollars to his campaign, and urges over 200 million of his followers on social media X to vote for him. Donald Trump has publicly promised Elon Musk that he will appoint him to a high government position or make him his advisor if he wins the election.

Kamala Harris is backed by another billionaire. According to Forbes magazine, billionaire Bill Gates has already donated tens of millions of dollars to support Kamala Harris's campaign, although he has not made any public statements about it.

Harris is also supported by Hollywood and entertainment stars, including globally renowned singers Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, and Beyoncé, singers Bruce Springsteen and Eminem, television host Oprah Winfrey, as well as actors Leonardo DiCaprio, George Clooney, Mark Hamill, Ben Stiller, Robert De Niro, David Duchovny, Sarah Jessica Parker, Jennifer Aniston, Barbra Streisand, and many others.

However, several leading American media outlets, such as the Washington Post and LA Times, have declined to endorse any of the candidates. Typically, just before elections, journalists from these publications openly inform their readers in the editorial column about whom they plan to vote for and why.

The decision to maintain a neutral stance was influenced by the publications' owners. Billionaire Jeff Bezos, who owns the Washington Post, blocked the publication of an editorial column supporting Kamala Harris. Another influential American billionaire, Patrick Soon-Shiong, who owns the LA Times, also insisted that his publication take a neutral position in this election.

The Washington Post and LA Times have usually supported Democratic presidential candidates, criticizing Donald Trump and labeling his potential return to power as a “threat to American democracy.”

“Even the richest people in America do not want Donald Trump to list them as his enemies. They do not want to lose tax benefits and lucrative contracts that their companies have. The president has leverage to complicate the lives of those who run successful businesses in the United States,” Dmitry Korobski explained.

The neutral stance of influential publications has sparked a wave of criticism in American society. Within a few days, over 200,000 (