China is facing significant challenges, as its economy heavily relies on the US and its Western partners.
According to Atlantic Council expert Michael Schuman, the war has forged a dangerous alliance among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia, which are opposing the US and the global order. However, unlike Iran and North Korea, this situation is not particularly advantageous for China.
China aims to reshape the international order but is simultaneously compelled to maintain economic stability. This duality forces the Chinese leadership to be cautious in supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine, as supplying weapons or direct intervention could lead to severe sanctions against Beijing.
At first glance, an alliance with autocratic regimes seems beneficial for China, as it helps distract the West and depletes its resources. However, if conflicts in those regions escalate, it could impact energy markets, on which China's economy significantly depends. Moreover, the threat of South Korean weapons being sent to Ukraine could intensify pressure on China from the US and its partners, resulting in new sanctions.
Due to its close collaboration with Russia, North Korea, and Iran, China is also losing influence over North Korea, while Russia is strengthening its influence in Pyongyang, which poses a concerning trend for Beijing. Furthermore, the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia is unacceptable to China, as Beijing may fear that the conflict "could now escalate into an intercontinental war."
Source: theatlantic