Has the mobilization slowed down? Why is there once again a personnel shortage in the military?

Is Mobilization Stalling?

Shortly after the mobilization law came into effect, the Ministry of Defense noted a positive trend in mobilization. The agency's spokesperson, Dmitry Lazutkin, stated in June that “the number of people being mobilized has increased” and “the process has gained a different intensity”. He did not provide specific figures at that time but mentioned that he was comparing data from March and February.

While the Ministry of Defense was “pleased” with this trend, it acknowledged that time is needed for the newly mobilized individuals to reach the front lines. According to the Ministry, they still need to undergo training, pass military medical examinations, and receive mobilization orders.

However, it seems that the situation has changed over the past few months.

“Mobilization has worsened,” said parliamentarian Roman Kostenko in early October, who is the secretary of the Verkhovna Rada's National Security Committee.

Assessing the accuracy of this statement is challenging, as the relevant data in Ukraine is classified as “secret.” Neither the General Staff nor the Ministry of Defense publicly discusses the mobilization plan or the number of people joining the army.

In response to a request from hromadske for comments on whether the Ministry of Defense has noticed the trend described by Roman Kostenko, we received no reply. During a briefing focused on the mobilization of volunteers, representatives of the agency also declined to comment on the pace of mobilization.

With all due respect to Roman Kostenko as a military officer and a deputy, only authorized structures — the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff — possess real information about mobilization, needs, and recruitment of personnel. Personal impressions are subjective.Ivan Timochko, military expert, head of the Reserve Council of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

At the same time, military analyst Alexey Hetman points out that the people's deputy has access to state secrets, and while he cannot disclose figures if they are not public information, he can draw logical conclusions.

“Given the data, it is enough to compare how many people have been mobilized since the beginning of the year and simply analyze the monthly or weekly trends of how many joined the Armed Forces. You can see whether the trend is rising, remaining stable, or declining,” asserts Alexey Hetman.

Another member of the parliamentary National Security Committee, Fedor Venislavsky, also noted a decrease in mobilization rates, though he indicated that it is not significant. In a comment to hromadske, the deputy pointed out that there are many factors influencing this, including an increase in the number of reservists.

Citizens have updated... military registration personal data, and a significant portion of them could be mobilized, but if we compare it even with the spring of this year, the number of reservists has rapidly increased. This is also one of the factors contributing to the slowdown in mobilization.Fedor Venislavsky, people's deputy, member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence

Military expert Ivan Timochko sees another problem. He highlighted the “hundreds of thousands of 30-year-old students” who are currently studying in universities and consequently have deferments from service. He urges the Ministry of Education to investigate “why there is such a sudden increase in the desire to study.”

Critical Questions in the Shadows

In February 2024, the recruiting agency Lobby X conducted a survey regarding Ukrainians' attitudes towards mobilization, with 45,700 participants. When asked what most deters them from joining the army, civilians in Ukraine most frequently cited: uncertainty about the professionalism of future commanders, the risk of death or severe injury, as well as potential erroneous and inadequate command decisions in operation planning.

Among the responses regarding conditions that could influence a favorable decision to join the Defense Forces, the most popular answers included: reforms and modernization of the army, government reforms, and confidence that military service would genuinely contribute to victory.

“The state must consider these aspects and address various issues,” said hromadske leader Vladislav Grezev when asked what the government could do to ensure sufficient personnel on the front lines.

One of the steps that Grezev believes should improve the situation is allowing the mobilization of volunteers without the involvement of TCK and SP. Currently, there are already 130 combat military units in Ukraine that individuals can join without going through territorial recruitment centers. The Ministry of Defense believes that this will provide Ukrainians with “an opportunity to find their place among the defenders, where their skills will be most beneficial.”

This definitely changes the system. People understand that now TCK is not involved in the process and has no distribution in the training center. You go directly to the place you want, you are enrolled — and that's it.Vladislav Grezev, head and founder of the recruiting agency Lobby X

However, military experts interviewed by hromadske lean towards viewing this as a technical solution rather than a substantial change. At the same time, urgent issues remain unresolved — demobilization and service durations, as well as numerous cases of desertion.

Not by Force, but by Persuasion

The British newspaper Times reported on October 3 that by the end of the year, Ukraine wants to draft another 200,000 people into the army — citing, once again, Roman Kostenko. The military leadership has not publicly disclosed any figures.

“It is necessary for the Supreme Commander and the Minister to take responsibility, ask the deputies, and [together use] various methods,” stated Roman Kostenko while discussing the slowdown in mobilization.

As one potential solution to the problem, Kostenko suggests recruiting younger individuals into the army.

Currently, the mobilization age in Ukraine ranges from 25 to 60 years. Moreover, this lower limit (previously 27 years) was lowered less than six months ago when the relevant law came into effect.

It is quite possible [that the mobilization age should be lowered]. Essentially, starting from 21-22 years, this is already an adult person who can fulfill certain military duties during wartime… If this threshold were lowered, for instance, by two years, how many people could be mobilized? And how many have certain restrictions or deferments? With this data, we can understand what such an action would yield.Alexey Hetman, military expert, veteran of the Russo-Ukrainian War, major in reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

However, on October 9, the parliament adopted a law prohibiting the mobilization of Ukrainians under 25 years old.

Another aspect of how to increase mobilization rates mentioned by Roman Kostenko is the need to motivate different categories of the population to enlist for contract service. However, he did not provide a recipe for how to achieve this.

According to expert Alexey Hetman, attention should be focused on three points:

• respect for military personnel should be “not just words, but actions”;
• intolerance towards draft dodgers;
• material and other benefits for servicemen who are serving.

Regarding the last point, he noted that many soldiers currently spend a significant portion of their salaries to support their units rather than for their own needs.