The year 2025 is expected to be pivotal for Ukraine.
One of the key events will be the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20. His rise to power may open a new chapter in relations with Russia and impact strategic support for Ukraine. Trump, who has repeatedly stated his intention to end the war "in 24 hours," is anticipated to begin negotiations with Vladimir Putin after the inauguration. He aims to "stop the killing and bring peace to the region." However, he emphasizes that the peace must be "just, sustainable, and secure."
In spring 2025, discussions in the U.S. will also focus on military aid to Ukraine as part of the new budget approval process. Currently, about $5.6 billion remains from the $61 billion aid package for Ukraine, which is unlikely to be utilized by the end of the year. Some of these funds may be passed on to the new Trump administration, which does not rule out reducing support for Ukraine. Last week, Congress approved a defense budget of $895 billion without additional funding for Ukraine. However, the final vote on the 2025 budget will take place in March-April, at which point discussions on further military assistance to Ukraine may resume.
Another significant event will be the NATO summit, scheduled for June 2025 in The Hague. Ukraine is likely to have a chance to get closer to joining the Alliance there. Experts suggest that at the summit, Trump may demand NATO allies increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, posing another challenge for European countries.
By the way, The Economist has unveiled a new cover featuring forecasts for 2025. The publication's editor highlighted ten major global trends for the new year. Among them are the growing role of America, geopolitical challenges, the trade war with China, a boom in clean technologies, a critical situation regarding artificial intelligence, increases in defense budgets and taxes, as well as challenges related to aging and the world's demographic shifts, along with unexpected events.