Negotiations may prove to be "fragile" if the newly elected president of the USA, Donald Trump, makes a series of significant mistakes.
This was stated by political analyst Paul Kormari from the RAND Corporation in a comment to Business Insider. He emphasizes that the main issue is the lack of strong security guarantees for Ukraine, which could lead to the "fragility" of a potential ceasefire.
"A solid agreement must necessarily include strengthening [Ukraine] and supporting [its] position to convincingly deter Russia from further attempts," the expert highlights.
He also added that Russia is "taking it piece by piece" and gradually seizing Ukrainian territories. Therefore, according to the expert, a peace agreement without proper security guarantees cannot deter Russia from further military actions.
Russia has also repeatedly stated that it is ready for peace negotiations only if Ukraine renounces its NATO membership. As journalists note, this requirement could be fulfilled if Trump signs such an agreement. Assistants to the future U.S. president have already voiced the idea that Ukraine could remain non-aligned, meaning neutral for the sake of the peace process.
However, some analysts believe that such a concession could lead to new threats to Ukraine's independence, as Ukraine was neutral until 2014, and this did not prevent Russia from seizing its territories.
As a potential scenario, some experts suggest concluding a security agreement that would involve strengthening the military presence of Ukraine's European allies or enhancing Ukraine's military capabilities through funding from the U.S. In this case, it may be possible to avoid new attacks from Russia and bolster the country's defense.
Source: businessinsider .
Politeka also reported on this matter.