A threat from space looms over civil aviation as scientists assess the risks of potential disasters.

The aviation industry faces new risks every year. For instance, frequent space launches increase the likelihood that space debris will fly somewhere along a busy air route.

This is highlighted by researchers from the University of British Columbia (Canada), as reported by Newsweek. These falling fragments could raise security costs for airlines, thereby increasing flight prices for the general public.

They analyzed data on space debris flybys on the busiest day of 2023 to assess the risks of an object from space passing through areas used by commercial aviation.

It turned out that for regions with peak traffic density, such as above Denver (Colorado), the annual probability of debris falling was 26%. They also calculated the likelihood of a collision with an aircraft—this was found to be 1 in 430,000. While this figure is currently quite low, the chances of a critical incident will rise with an increase in launches.

It is noted that last year there were 258 successful rocket launches and 120 uncontrolled debris falls. Approximately 2,300 rocket bodies remain in orbit, which will eventually fall to the surface.

Additionally, there have been incidents involving airspace violations. For example, in 2022, part of the Spanish and French airspace was closed due to the fall of a 20-ton piece of rocket.

Another incident was the recent explosion of the SpaceX Starship rocket, which led authorities in some states to impose an emergency flight ban. However, in this case, they had a rough understanding of the debris fall trajectory, whereas space debris can descend from orbit at any time and anywhere.

As previously reported, SpaceX lost the Starship spacecraft during its seventh test flight on January 17. Communication with the spacecraft was lost nine minutes after launch.