Extreme heat is here to stay: the world has crossed a dangerous threshold.

The Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 became one of the most significant documents aimed at preventing humanity from exceeding the "critical" threshold of global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, new research suggests that the world may have already crossed this line.

This is highlighted in two independent studies published by European and Canadian scientists in the journal Nature Climate Change. They pointed out that in 2024, temperatures exceeded this mark for 12 consecutive months, marking the first time in recorded history.

It is important to note that global climate changes are not assessed over short periods; models typically use a 20-year average. Therefore, a single year of extreme heat does not provide definitive evidence that humanity has already crossed a dangerous threshold, especially considering that a strong El Niño was observed in 2023-2024.

Nevertheless, the new studies indicate a 76-99% probability that the world is already at the beginning of this 20-year period.

In the European study, researchers examined historical climate change models and found that when the average global temperature reached a certain threshold, the subsequent 20-year period also hit that mark. In other words, if last year the Earth experienced a 1.5-degree increase, it is likely to continue in the following years.

The Canadian study employed a somewhat different methodology, yet the conclusions remained largely the same. Both studies state that if the world does not take decisive action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions now, we will inevitably reach the temperature threshold.

As is well known, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an increase in temperature of 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels will lead to a significant rise in the frequency of heatwaves and other extreme weather conditions. Additionally, this will cause food production issues and open up new regions for the spread of tropical diseases.

Scientists believe that the world can still reverse the situation by reducing emissions to net zero; however, even in this case, some natural processes will continue to warm the planet for hundreds of years, albeit not as rapidly as human activities have done. To reverse this trend, humanity must learn to absorb more carbon from the atmosphere than it emits. Technologies that would enable this already exist, but they are expensive, operate on relatively small scales, and do not always yield long-term results.

Thus, for now, humanity is advised to reduce emissions, adapt to new realities, and hope that this will be sufficient to last until brighter minds devise a more reliable technology for atmospheric carbon capture.

As previously reported, under the ice of Antarctica, entire "rivers" have been discovered, which are accelerating the melting of the continent. The largest of these has already grown to over a thousand kilometers in length.