Military Experts Summarize the Year
The third calendar year of the large-scale war between Russia and Ukraine is coming to a close. To be frank, it has been extremely difficult. We have lost many lives, and the enemy has managed to destroy or damage numerous critical infrastructure facilities. Ukraine has temporarily lost some of its territory.
Kashtan NEWS spoke with military experts about the outcomes for 2024.
Former Spokesperson of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Captain of the 1st Rank of the Navy, Vladislav Seleznyov
“Should we throw ashes on our heads? I think not. Despite the fact that the situation at the front is quite complicated, and (let's not deceive ourselves) the initiative on the battlefield mostly lies with the enemy's army, there has not been a collapse of the front as some predicted. In the current circumstances, this can be considered positive news.”
1 Enemy Offensive and Modest Achievements
To be honest, Seleznyov continued, unfortunately, we somewhat miscalculated when assessing the potential of the Russian army: everyone expected that by early October, the enemy's forces would lose their capabilities and exhaust themselves. This did not happen, and the aggressor's offensive reserve has not been depleted, meaning they continue their creeping advance.
However, it is important to note, the interlocutor remarked, that despite the enormous potential they employ and the incredible losses in both equipment and personnel, the enemy achieves rather modest results on the battlefield. The claims by the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army, Valery Gerasimov, that the occupying army has fulfilled all the tasks set for 2024 are complete nonsense.
Buffer Zone
Over the past year, the Russians, despite their efforts, have failed to establish a so-called buffer zone in the north, within the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions, which they loudly proclaimed they would create. Instead, we established this zone thanks to operations in the Kursk region.
2 Moreover, the enemy has still not been able to gain full control over the Luhansk region or occupy the entire Donetsk region. Therefore, it is, at the very least, inappropriate to discuss their successes.
Enemy Advancement in the South Halted
“Similarly, the Russian invaders have not managed to significantly activate their operations in the Zaporizhzhia region. This may indicate that they lack resources—both personnel and logistical,” emphasized the military expert.
The only thing, he noted, that the enemy has managed quite well is to create a logistical network to supply their units operating in the southern part of the occupied Zaporizhzhia region, as well as in southern Kherson.
3 Thus, they have gathered quite a bit of resources there, but despite such advantages, the occupiers have not been able to transform them into movements aimed at achieving further territorial gains in these two Ukrainian regions.
Enemy Forces Restricted
“Therefore, it is not worth talking about 2024 as if ‘everything is lost.’ Throughout this year, the Ukrainian Defense Forces were in a state of strategic defense, with the key goal being to maximize the depletion of enemy forces and resources to reduce their offensive potential. Just take a look at the reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and compare them to the corresponding figures from December of last year, and it will become evident that we are destroying the enemy more than we did before,” Seleznyov pointed out.
Flames in the Rear
According to the expert, a positive aspect is that after long deliberations by our strategic partners, we finally received the opportunity to strike military targets of the enemy located deep in their rear. At the same time, Seleznyov emphasized that these missile and drone strikes are large-scale, not isolated incidents as they were previously. This allows us to reduce Russian military capabilities along the front line, as the enemy is losing resources.
4 Incidentally, the military explained, failures at the front have again forced the enemy to revert to the insidious tactic of massive missile strikes on civilian targets. This is done in an attempt to destabilize the situation in society and plunge Ukraine into chaos. The occupiers have also failed in this endeavor. This can also be added to the list of positives.
“Thus, it is not worth talking about an absolutely losing situation in 2024. I would also not risk discussing serious developments and the likelihood of a significant shift in the situation in our favor. The main thing is that we have maintained the situation. And this is despite the fact that in the first four months we conducted combat operations with virtually empty military depots due to the delays in the supply of weapons, ammunition, and equipment from our American partners,” Seleznyov concluded regarding the year 2024.
Attempt at Prediction
What awaits us in the coming year? According to the officer, things are unlikely to improve significantly.
“The enemy army will act as much and as extensively as its resources allow and as much as we permit. And we, accordingly, will operate within the limits of the resources we have. In any case, the war will continue. All talk about Putin supposedly being ready for negotiations is empty rhetoric. Since he has not achieved his stated goals, which he could ‘sell’ to his entourage,” the military expert stated.
Former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko
It is positive that, despite all the difficulties, we continue to firmly hold our state and statehood. Although the Russians have been conducting offensive operations with varying intensity for the second year, resulting in the capture of new territories.
5 When comparing this year to previous ones, Romanenko noted that it is somewhat similar in complexity to the beginning of the invasion, particularly its first month, but then the situation stabilized.
“The start of this year was also tough. Last year was difficult because counteroffensive actions did not materialize for various reasons: instead of transitioning to strategic defense with available resources, there was an attempt to advance. Therefore, this year has been the realization of all previously accumulated mistakes,” the general pointed out.
Moving Towards Negotiations
“Despite the rather difficult state and the Russians' advance on the front, we seem to be approaching the beginning of negotiations to suspend hostilities: Ukraine needs a break, time for reformatting, regrouping. The rest will have to be defended diplomatically, and we must prepare for the next stage (of hostilities, editor’s note), because Russia will not stop at what it has achieved,” predicted the former General Staff official.
In Romanenko's view, a temporary halt to the war would be a harsh compromise for many participants in the conflict, primarily concerning Ukraine and Russia.
Yevhen DEM’YANOV