Military experts assessed the results of the combat operations during another year of Ukraine's struggle against Russian invaders
Three years have passed since the Russian Federation launched a full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine.
Kashтан NEWS inquired with experts about what this period has been like for our country from a military perspective.
Former spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Captain 1st Rank of the Navy Vladislav Seleznyov:
“The year has been difficult. Since late 2023, the Russian army has been in a state of counteroffensive, actively exerting pressure along almost the entire line of contact.
Our illusions last year that by early October the offensive potential of Putin's army would be depleted did not materialize: his army found the strength to actively attack at least on several fronts. These include Pokrovsk, the remnants of the Kurakhiv bridgehead, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Kupiansk, and occasionally the Kursk region. The situation in southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions is also quite complicated. Therefore, all of this indicates that the Russian dictator still has resources to continue his aggressive offensive actions actively.”
5 As Seleznyov noted, the Ukrainian army has been conducting an active strategic defense throughout the third year of the war, destroying a significant amount of enemy personnel, armored vehicles, and weaponry. However, despite this, we were forced to temporarily cede certain parts of our territory.
“If we weigh what is more important — territory or the lives of our soldiers, the answer will be clearly in favor of the latter,” — emphasized Vladislav Seleznyov.
The fourth year of the war will likely also bring active offensive actions from the Russian army and, accordingly, an active defense from the Ukrainian army.
Military expert, coordinator of the NGO “Common Cause” Dmytro Sniehiriov:
“In 2024, we maintained the situation under control. That is, the Russians were unable to accomplish even tactical-level tasks — reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. The enemy also failed to advance to capture new territories deep within Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. All the “scares” regarding possible enemy landing operations in Kherson turned out to be merely elements of an information operation.
To be objective, there were losses in 2024: slow but ongoing enemy advancement in the Donetsk region. This primarily concerns key points of Ukrainian defense — Avdiivka, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar. These are painful losses both territorially and economically.”
6 We held Donbas
However, Dmytro Sniehiriov pointed out that despite certain successes of the enemy, there are currently no grounds to speak of significant territorial losses. Moreover, the expert emphasized that the main industrial facilities in the Donetsk region remain under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. These include the Pokrovsk, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk agglomerations.
At the same time, throughout the third year of the war, the scale of military operations did not expand to the territory of Dnipropetrovsk region, which is also an achievement of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
7 8 They didn’t expect us in Kursk
Among the “pluses” of 2024, Dmytro Sniehiriov continued, we can undoubtedly mention the Kursk operation, which demonstrated Ukraine's agency.
“This operation was successful both in terms of planning and, most importantly, in terms of implementing the ideas and plans of the Ukrainian command,” — emphasized the military analyst.
He is convinced that the execution of the Kursk operation was a complete surprise for both the Russians and our strategic partners, who insisted that in 2024 the Ukrainian Defense Forces should transition exclusively to a passive strategic defense to contain Russian troops.
In other words, Sniehiriov explained, there was no talk of any counteroffensive in 2024 at all.
Furthermore, after our unsuccessful counteroffensive in 2023, in which misguided advice from some Western partners played a significant role, the Kursk operation demonstrated a high level of our intelligence activities: there were no leaks of information regarding military intentions. At the same time, the operation showcased the high level of operational maneuvering of our intelligence community.
9 “This includes well-planned disinformation of the enemy at the moment of preparing for the operation, when the deployment of personnel was disguised as protection of the Sumy region from a potential Russian invasion. Thus, we effectively neutralized the Russian side's ability to anticipate our moves, which proved that Russian intelligence did not account for all possible scenarios of events. And for over six months now, despite all enemy efforts, we have maintained our control over territories in the Kursk region. This, too, has been a defeat for the Russians,” — shared thoughts the representative of “Common Cause.”
Additionally, he noted that by the end of the past year, it became clear that the Kursk region would be used by us not only for military purposes but primarily as a tool for political pressure on the Russian Federation.
Strikes deep into Russia
Moreover, Dmytro Sniehiriov reminded that 2024 will be remembered as the year of unprecedented strikes against Russian military infrastructure located deep within the territory of the aggressor country.
This occurred due to several factors. Firstly, it was influenced by the permission of our strategic partners to use their long-range weapons to strike the enemy. Most importantly, the domestic defense industry proved capable of scaling the production of strike drones with improved tactical and technical characteristics.
0 “As a result, we now perceive it as routine that our drones can strike the enemy from distances ranging from 1,700 to over 2,000 kilometers. And this has significantly weakened both the Russian economy and its military logistics chains. Therefore, we can confidently call 2024 the year of cotton in the territory of the Russian Federation,” — noted Sniehiriov.
Every executioner will be punished
Last year also marked the execution of operations on the territory of the Russian Federation, which were planned and implemented by the Ukrainian intelligence community. This primarily concerns the physical elimination of collaborators and war criminals.
Such successful acts of retribution, Dmytro Sniehiriov noted, demonstrated the incapacity of the Russian counterintelligence system to prevent or hinder operations aimed at eliminating certain individuals and acts of sabotage and diversion at enemy military-industrial complex facilities.
1 The war came to the Russians
As the saying goes, he who sows the wind will reap the whirlwind.
“This is what happened with the Russians: in 2024, Russia learned the meaning of the phrase ‘internally displaced persons’. The war they started has returned to their own territory both psychologically and economically. A paradigm shift in the nature of war has occurred,” — summarized Dmytro Sniehiriov.
At the same time, he emphasized that if anyone is looking for betrayal, there was none: we maintained the situation and imposed our behavior on the enemy. In other words, we changed the psychology of delivering strikes. Because if earlier we expected them from the enemy on our holidays, now these sentiments have begun to spread to the territory of the aggressor country. Now the occupiers have started to look at the “red” dates of their calendar with apprehension, gazing at the sky, wondering: will something come flying or not...
Prepared by Yevhen DEM’YANOV