Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko summarizes the political outcomes
The third year of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine is coming to a close. This year has probably been the most challenging and ambiguous for Ukraine in military, economic, and political terms.
Given that politics significantly influences events on both military and socio-economic fronts, Kасhtan NEWS asked political scientist and director of the Center for Applied Political Research "Penta," Volodymyr Fesenko, to summarize the situation.
3 The war has dragged on
According to Volodymyr Fesenko, it is not particularly useful to focus on Ukraine's losses or achievements during this period.
The third year of the full-scale war has been difficult and tough for us, the political scientist emphasized. In political, psychological, economic, and military senses. The war has dragged on. It has gone on longer than we or our partners expected. And it is clear that the scenario of a prolonged war, transitioning to a war of attrition, is not advantageous for us.
Unfortunately, Fesenko noted, we currently lack the resources to change this scenario, and our partners have not been prepared to intensify their support for Ukraine and increase pressure on Russia.
Therefore, the expert believes that the situation in the third year of the war has become a stalemate. Russia has, to some extent, intensified military actions on our territory: the slow but ongoing advance of invading troops continues, primarily in the Donetsk region.
4 Attack as a legitimization of the right to self-defense
On the other hand, during this time, there have also been positive developments. In this context, the political scientist recalled the successful offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region. In fact, for the first time in modern history, Ukrainian forces launched an offensive on enemy territory.
“In this way, it essentially legitimized our right to self-defense. Earlier, our Western partners (albeit indirectly) had prohibited such actions. Yet we demonstrated and proved that there is nothing wrong with such actions,” — said Volodymyr Fesenko.
5 Another positive trend in the third year of the war is that Ukraine has begun large-scale regular attacks on military infrastructure targets within the territory of the Russian Federation.
Prospects for negotiations
At the same time, the analyst emphasized that perhaps the main new trend that emerged at the end of the third year of the war is the activation of movements towards preparing for peace negotiations.
If the issue of peace negotiations was virtually not raised during the first two and a half years of the war (except for the first month and a half after the full-scale invasion began), after Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential elections, this topic has gained prominence.
In political terms, the topic of ending the war and the beginning of potential peace negotiations has become the most noticeable, emerging as the main trend. Although there are many discussions about ending the war, there have been no real shifts towards its conclusion yet.
6 It is quite likely, the political scientist does not rule out, that we will witness a trend combining peace negotiations and continued hostilities as we enter the fourth year of the war.
What to expect from partners
Our future will depend on the subsequent actions of Ukraine's Western allies. However, as Volodymyr Fesenko points out, we currently see varying approaches from our partners. For instance, Trump's administration identifies ending the war as its main priority, although it does not rule out continuing military support for Ukraine. Most likely, this will be solely military aid without macroeconomic support.
Regarding our European partners, different positions are evident here. However, the primary and dominant trend remains support for Ukraine. Europeans, as Volodymyr Fesenko emphasizes, understand better than anyone that Ukraine cannot be left to fend for itself. Because our state defends not only its freedom but also European security.
7 “If Ukraine loses this war, the next blow will be struck against European countries – EU and NATO countries. Therefore, with some exceptions, they are fully aware of this and support us,” — the political expert states.
At the same time, he notes that the new U.S. administration is currently paying less attention to solidarity with Europe. At times, it behaves overtly unfriendly, even aggressively, towards its NATO partners, which is undoubtedly not a positive trend.
Moreover, Volodymyr Fesenko recalls statements from the White House about the U.S. trying to shift the burden of war assistance onto Europeans. This is also not very favorable.
We must do our part
Thus, the interlocutor concludes that with Trump's victory in the elections, the situation in the world in general and around Ukraine, in particular, has become more contradictory.
However, it is not catastrophic, assures the political analyst. Because, on one hand, Trump is creating a window of opportunity for a peace process, while on the other, it seems that Americans have not yet fully determined the compromise conditions for ending the war. Although it is a good sign that they do not support ending the war on Russia's terms. However, there are certain risks regarding possible concessions from both our side and the Russian side.
8 As Fesenko emphasized, due to the fact that the situation on the world political stage is currently quite contradictory and, to some extent, problematic, we must continue to resist Russian aggression. And whether we manage to stop the Russian advance and where will significantly influence the prospects for future negotiations, he added.
Moreover, the political scientist is convinced that we need to actively engage with the new Trump administration, as well as our European partners. In particular, with the latter, the expert believes that the Ukrainian side needs to strengthen security issues and develop a common security policy in Europe.
What to expect from Russia
According to Volodymyr Fesenko, for Russia to make concessions, it must be weakened, and the advance must be halted so that Putin understands that he cannot win this war. Currently, he holds the illusion that Ukraine is weakening and can be pressed further. Fesenko also noted that the Russian ruler had high hopes for a change in political circumstances with Trump's rise to power in the U.S.
If the Russian dictator realizes that support for Ukraine from the U.S. and Europe will continue, and that political and economic pressure on the aggressor country will intensify, this may compel Putin to respond positively to Trump's proposal for a fair end to the war.
Prepared by Yevhen DEM’YANOV