A positive aspect is that we remain within the political and economic interests of the United States of America
Despite the efforts of Ukrainian and foreign politicians to find ways to end the Russo-Ukrainian war, it is unlikely that we should expect a swift cessation of bloodshed.
What can we anticipate in the near future? Kashtan NEWS inquired with military experts.
The power of weaponry as an argument
Former spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Captain 1st rank of the Ukrainian Navy Vladislav Seleznyov believes that political efforts will not halt the war in an instant.
“I don’t have much faith in the success of Trump's intentions to end the war. Although he and his team are diligently trying to promote this track, I don’t see effective levers of influence on Putin’s policy to cease his aggression. After all, he currently needs at least four regions that are included in the Russian constitution. It’s unlikely that any Ukrainian politicians would agree to such a trade-off. Therefore, it is quite clear that the resolution of the issue between the two sides will continue to be carried out through the use of force,” Seleznyov said.
1 Consequently, the expert is convinced that the factors influencing the situation on the battlefield will be dynamics, scale, losses, and gains.
Without weapons, we will be destroyed
At the same time, the expert reminded that some members of the American president's team insist that the path to stopping the military conflict lies in halting the supply of weapons and equipment to Ukraine.
“In my opinion, this is a great folly. After all, we did not start this war; we are defending ourselves. Accordingly, if we do not have weapons, we will simply be destroyed. Especially considering that Putin does not hide his intentions to annihilate the Ukrainian state and a large part of the Ukrainian people. Therefore, the logic of some representatives of the American administration is, to put it mildly, strange,” Seleznyov shared his thoughts.
Can we stay afloat without Western assistance? According to the officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the aid from our foreign partners constitutes almost 30 percent of the total supplies needed for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, European partners will closely observe the position of their American colleagues and will decide whether or not to take steps in our favor.
2 Domestic defense industry and weapon stockpiles
On the other hand, Seleznyov reminded that there is a domestic military-industrial complex, as well as certain agreements at the level of intergovernmental relations regarding the development of the defense industry.
“I believe we will hold on. Especially considering that the volumes of weapons and equipment produced by the previous American administration will allow us to confidently get through at least the first half of the year. After that, we will need to seek opportunities, options, and accumulate our resources to achieve success on the battlefield,” the military expert believes.
At the same time, he emphasizes that there is a gradual depletion of the Russian army's potential. This is demonstrated by the dynamics of combat operations: if last year the number of combat clashes per day averaged two hundred or more, now it fluctuates at around one hundred.
“It is clear that we are unlikely to achieve a complete pause on the battlefield in the near future, but the dynamics indicate that the Russian army, albeit gradually, is wearing itself out,” Seleznyov stated.
3 Two desires of the Russians
Meanwhile, military expert and coordinator of the NGO "Common Cause" Dmitry Sniegiryev noted that the hope that the war would end after Trump’s inauguration has not materialized.
Thus, Sniegiryev explained, the Russians will continue to resolve two strategic issues for themselves. The first is the attempt to push us out of the Kursk region, and the second is to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, as the Luhansk region is already practically fully occupied by them.
“If we manage to maintain the situation and do not allow the enemy to expand his zone of presence in the Donetsk region, we will consider this a victory,” emphasized the military analyst.
4 Ukraine is not going to be "sacrificed"
Meanwhile, Sniegiryev is convinced that a positive aspect is that we remain within the political and economic interests of the United States of America.
“This means that no one is handing us over to Russia. With its statement about rare minerals in Ukraine, the U.S. has sent a direct signal to the Russian Federation that they view Ukrainian territories as a zone of their influence,” the interlocutor emphasized.
Who will protect Ukraine's interests
It is evident that the year 2025 will be marked by a negotiation process regarding the future of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
However, as Sniegiryev suggests, discussions will mainly revolve around possible territorial concessions.
If it comes to the line of demarcation, the military expert explains, it will be, without exaggeration, a Ukrainian victory: we will not lose our main industrial centers, which is quite significant.
It is also essential to understand, the expert is convinced, that support for Ukraine from Europe will not cease. Moreover, it can now be said that Great Britain will play a leading role in lobbying for Ukrainian interests.
5 It is no coincidence, Sniegiryev pointed out, that this country has led "Ramstein" and is building a political axis of London – Kyiv – Ankara.
“Thus, from a pragmatic standpoint, we can say that support will continue from both Great Britain and France, which is trying to maintain its role as a regional leader. At the same time, we should not forget about Germany. So, on one hand, we can say that the year '25 will be marked by calls to end the war, while on the other hand, we can say that by May, we should expect a harsh intensification of military confrontation. After all, Russia will be trying to accomplish the aforementioned two strategic tasks,” concluded Dmitry Sniegiryev.
Yevhen DEM’YANOV