With words and explosives: How Russia aims to destabilize the situation in Ukraine.

“We must recall the military doctrine of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Gerasimov. He noted that the ratio of military to non-military efforts in conducting hybrid warfare should be 1 to 4. This means that in the war against Ukraine, Russia allocates four times more resources to the activities of influence agents, implementing information-psychological, political, and other measures aimed at comprehensively weakening Ukraine. Currently, we are witnessing a phase of intensification of these non-military efforts to undermine the Ukrainian rear, particularly in a sabotage-terrorist format. We must consider that the Russians are capable of acting within our rear on a larger, more intense, and bolder scale than they have previously done. Apparently, they believe that our rear is now a weaker link in the Ukrainian defense than the front line,” says political science candidate and officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Mikhalchishin.

A weak rear cannot hold the front. The best way to weaken the Ukrainian rear, according to Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of projects at the Globalistics Center “Strategy-21,” is to sow total distrust among Ukrainians towards the government, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, foreign partners, and even towards themselves.

Hromadske spoke with Yuriy Mikhalchishin and Pavlo Lakiychuk about the measures being taken by Russia to render Ukrainians powerless.

Why do we fall for the Russian bait?

According to Yuriy Mikhalchishin, the misfortune of Ukrainians is that before the onset of Russian aggression, we did not have enough time to fully form as a political nation. Our Maidans somewhat accelerated this process, preventing Yanukovych from turning Ukraine into “Union Belarus”. However, we lacked just a few years to completely free ourselves from the imperial embrace of Russia and initiate the evolutionary process of creating a political nation. Conversely, Russia also lacked the time to definitively turn Ukraine into its province.

Yuriy states that Russia is very well aware of our weak points and skillfully exploits them. This includes, for instance, the absence of strategic planning among Ukrainians for the long term.

“We can quickly ignite around some idea, mobilize to achieve it, but we lack endurance for the long haul. And, of course, we reach a point of burnout and exhaustion. In 2023, the Russians clearly caught onto this moment — and intensified their information intervention, effectively inciting Ukrainians against one another, particularly regarding the prospects of our resistance,” says Yuriy Mikhalchishin.

Another weakness of Ukrainians, according to Mikhalchishin, is a certain naivety and even helplessness in dealing with highly professional and experienced Western elites. Russians skillfully exploit our inherent inferiority complex. It seems we strive to cater to the tastes and expectations of foreign partners instead of asserting our own position. Furthermore, the expert believes that some historical wounds of Ukrainians have yet to heal.

“I mean the events of the 20th century. Let’s remember: in 1918, the Russians entered Ukraine as interveners. A year later, against the Directory of Petliura , red forces formed from Ukrainians were already fighting — units of Bozhko, Shchors , etc. The Russians managed to turn the war with an external aggressor into a civil war! The occupation of Donbas in 2014 was also labeled a civil war,” says Yuriy Mikhalchishin.

The Russians skillfully exploit these historical traumas of ours and feed them. Recall how they expertly manipulated the church issue, the topic of decommunization, the struggle against imperial heritage. If forces in Ternopil found themselves defending a monument to Pushkin, it means that Russia is employing very effective mechanisms to divide Ukrainian society.Yuriy Mikhalchishin, political science candidate and officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The Russians exploit every crack

According to Pavlo Lakiychuk, it is easy for the Russians to discredit the Ukrainian authorities — due to the prevalence of nepotism, corruption, lack of transparency in decision-making, unconstitutional distribution of responsibilities among officials, and so on. Any slight crack in trust towards the authorities is transformed by the Russians into a significant rift between the government and the people. Unfortunately, the authorities contribute to this with their actions, particularly regarding the very sensitive issue of mobilization for Ukrainians.

“Mobilization work is the direct responsibility of the president. However, the president has shifted this responsibility to the Cabinet, the government — to the Verkhovna Rada, which has some questions for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Instead of implementing planned mobilization measures for the economy and people, they began to introduce changes to some laws. A discussion arose about demobilization — and instead of openly stating that due to a lack of soldiers at the front we cannot talk about demobilization, the authorities are postponing this issue to spring, and from spring — to autumn. The public is waiting, the authorities avoid direct answers, and the Russians are thrilled. Or take the issue of reservations — this scandal with circus performers, for example. How and why were they equated with workers of strategic enterprises? Or the infamous “busification,”” says Lakiychuk.

The authorities did not provide the TCC with the ability to reach conscripts in other ways. According to my information, 9 out of 10 summonses went unanswered by the citizens to whom they were issued. How can we form units in such a situation? Rely on local authorities, who are responsible for military accounting? The head of the village council wants to be elected again, so he will not deliver a summons to anyone’s yard.Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security projects at the Globalistics Center “Strategy-21”

The expert notes that Russia has succeeded in shaping a negative perception of the TCC among Ukrainians. According to Lakiychuk, under such conditions, it is very easy for the Russians to find marginalized elements to undermine TCC buildings and be confident that killing the staff of these enlistment centers will not provoke outrage from a certain part of Ukrainians.

With Putin's instigation, President Zelensky has become illegitimate in our eyes — incorrect, unreliable, incapable of defeating the enemy or stopping hostilities. Logically, at the behest of Moscow, the issue of the next presidential elections has gained popularity in the Ukrainian information space.

“Moscow knows how to use democratic mechanisms to bring anti-democratic forces to power, achieving destabilization of the political system in a certain country. With its financial and informational resources, it is easy to turn the democratic election process into acute confrontation between specific social groups — in this regard, they are direct heirs of the skills of Soviet special services. In 1946, during the first post-war elections, the virtually legal rise to power of the communists and the incitement of civil war in Italy were halted by the USA, which ensured the victory of democrats in the country. In the civil war in Greece in 1949, Soviet special services also supported the communists. There are many such examples,” says Yuriy Mikhalchishin.

He states that as long as the Russians believe that elections can weaken Ukraine and sow discord among Ukrainians, they will continue to speak about the illegitimacy of the president and the necessity of elections.

Not defenders, but servants?

At the beginning of the full-scale war, Putin personally addressed Ukrainian servicemen: he urged them to overthrow the fascist authorities in Ukraine. He said, “You are simple good guys, and with you, we will find common ground.” Pavlo Lakiychuk considers this appeal a powerful attempt by Russia to discredit the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the eyes of Ukrainians — to make us all despair of our defenders, to whom the president of the enemy country appeals as to his like-minded individuals. Over the following years, there have been many such attempts from Russia.

“Recall, for instance, the appointment of General Syrsky as Commander-in-Chief. The Russians happily inflated the fact that Syrsky studied in Russia, thus trying to incite doubts among Ukrainians about whether this 'Moskaly' would sell out to the enemy. He was labeled a 'butcher' who would lead our fighters to slaughter, skillfully exploiting the fact that Syrsky replaced Zaluzhny and so on,” notes Pavlo Lakiychuk.

The Russian information-psychological operations regarding Syrsky's appointment simultaneously targeted three areas: to discredit the Commander-in-Chief, to discredit the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and to discredit the highest authority that appointed Syrsky to the position.Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security projects at the Globalistics Center “Strategy-21”

According to Yuriy Mikhalchishin, Russia is doing everything to shape the image of the Ukrainian army as